Business leaders see signs of optimism, with jobs and real estate lagging

/ File photo

A new report shows mixed sentiments on the future of the Las Vegas economy.

Las Vegas business leaders are showing more confidence in the recovery of the Southern Nevada economy than they have over the last three years, but remain pessimistic about the real estate and construction industry, and even job hiring.

For the second consecutive quarter, the Southern Nevada Business Confidence Index released by the Center for Business and Economic Research at UNLV remained above 100 – meaning more respondents gave an optimistic answer than a pessimistic answer about general economic conditions.

Its release comes days after the center said its Index of Economic Indicators grew by 1.02 percent in January. The increase, led by gains in travel and tourism, is one of the largest one-month increases in the 30-year history of the index. The center said it might mean job growth in the second half of 2011.

Business leaders aren’t overly confident in their expectations of the performance of the economy through the first half of 2011, but they’re more optimistic than pessimistic.

Some 45 percent expect no change in the economy through June, but 30 percent expect improvement compared to 25 percent who expect it to worsen.

When it comes to sales and profits in their industry, 53 percent of those surveyed said they expect no change in sales, but 37 percent said they expect improvement. That contrasts with 10 percent seeing a decline in sales.

With profits, 48 percent project no change, 31 percent see profits increasing and 21 percent forecast a decrease.

The survey showed that firms are hesitant about hiring. When asked about hiring, 12 percent project an increase, 24 percent project a decrease and 64 percent said there will be no change.

As for real estate and construction, those surveyed weren’t optimistic for a quick recovery.

Nearly 74 percent said it will be at least 2013 before Southern Nevada home prices show signs of a meaningful recovery. Twelve percent project such a recovery in the first half of 2012 and 12 percent in the second half of 2012. Three percent said it would occur in the second half of 2011.

In the construction sector, more than 83 percent said there won’t be an increase until 2013 or beyond, while 6 percent said it would occur in the second half of 2012. Some 9 percent project an increase in the first half of 2012, while 1 percent said it will be in the second half of 2011.

The survey results showed business leaders were more optimistic about the U.S. economy with 51 percent expecting improvement in the second quarter of 2011. Some 35 percent said conditions will remain the same and 14 percent expect it to worsen.

Forty-four percent of the 81 people who participated in the survey work in the real estate and financial industry. The others include the casino industry, professional services, transportation and communication, construction and government.

Business

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